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January 28 挑战者20年祭“挑战者”号的追思 作者：郝铭鉴 《文汇报》1986年4月8日 后选入中学课本 美国“挑战者”号航天飞机爆炸，已经成为“旧闻”，但人们仍忘不了那悲壮的场面。在人类与自然的交往史上，佛罗里达州上空的这一声巨响，将永远会发出深沉的回声。第一位参加航天飞行的“平民”——37岁的教师克里斯塔·麦考利夫，虽然没有实现上两次“太空课”的愿望，却以自己探索太空的勇气，为全世界上了惊心动魄的一课。 由航天飞机，要联想到早期的飞机。人类历史上的第一架飞机，是由美国的莱特兄弟发明的。它于1903年12月17日试飞，至今还不到100年。世界上第一架载客飞机于1908年5月15日飞行成功，10年之后开辟了第一条“伦敦——巴黎”国际客运航线。据说乘坐早期的飞机，其保险系数还不及今天的航天飞机哩。在空中飞行随时会发生故障，有时短短的旅程，竟会被迫降落十多次。机舱的密封条件又不好，“高处不胜寒，乘客们不得不穿着皮大衣，戴上皮手套，用灌满热水的瓶子取暖。飞机的引擎声更是震耳欲聋。在人类航空史上，飞机的发明者、驾驭者自是值得大书特书，早期的乘客同样也值得大书特书。如果没有这样一批勇敢者，也许直到今天还不一定有波音747、“空中客车”,当然也就更不可能有航天飞机和人类壮丽的太空事业。从早期的飞机到今天的航天飞机，是人类探索精神的物化。“挑战者”号虽然已化为碎片，人类的探索精神却得到了发扬。 不仅航天事业，一切科学事业都需要探索精神。探索者总是面对着未知的世界，每前进一小步都会增加一百倍的艰险，因此这种精神既是创造精神，开拓精神，也是冒险精神，献身精神。一部科学史证明一条定理：为了开拓，必须冒险。生物学家达尔文并没有因为昆虫中毒而放弃对昆虫世界的考察，化学家诺贝尔也并没有因为炸药爆炸而中止自己的化学实验。俄国物理学家利赫曼和罗蒙诺索夫，曾打算利用在屋顶上竖铁杆的办法，把空中的雷电引下来仔细研究。一个电闪雷鸣的夜晚，当他们两个攀上屋顶时，突然一道闪光掠过，利赫曼教授随之倒地。然而，罗蒙诺索夫在给利赫曼念完悼词之后，又继续开始冒着生命危险揭示雷电的奥秘。面对着这些无畏的探索者，我们怎么能不受到启迪和激励！ 其实，又何止自然科学，社会科学同样需要探索精神。“路漫漫其修远兮，吾将上下而求索”，应该成为全体科学工作者的座右铭。马克思主义便是在探索中诞生、在探索中前进的。邓小平同志曾经说过：马克思主义“要求人们根据它的基本原则和基本方法，不断结合变化着的实际，探索解决新问题的答案，从而也发展马克思主义理论本身”。社会科学的成果一开始便要直接和社会见面，产生广泛的现实影响，作为探索者，自应抱高度负责的态度，既要有乘坐航天飞机的勇气，又要掌握“基本原则和基本方法”；而从社会的角度来说，则应积极为探索者创造条件，激励和振奋探索精神，并通过社会实践来检验探索的成果。这是社会文明的标志，也是一个国家、一个民族充满信心的标志。“挑战者”号爆炸了，美国的宇航局并没有因此关门，航天飞机仍会在万里苍穹中穿行。人类的探索精神是不灭的。 January 27 哈马斯胜了咋办？From Agencies via ChinaDaily
What happens after Hamas' victory' 2006-01-27 07:06
Why did Hamas do so well? A lot of support came from Palestinians keen to end the domination of the Fatah movement, which led since late President Yasser Arafat agreed interim peace deals with Israel in the early 1990s. The image of President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah has been damaged by claims that the party is corrupt, out of touch and divided. Hamas, officially dedicated to destroying Israel, was at the forefront of a Palestinian uprising since 2000. Will Hamas form a government? It is up to Abbas to pick a prime minister, but he needs the support of the biggest party in parliament, effectively leaving the shape of the next government in the hands of Hamas. With a parliamentary majority, Hamas could theoretically choose to govern alone, but would prefer a coalition. A prime minister would not necessarily have to come from Hamas ranks. Fatah officials say they will not participate in any Hamas coalition. That could prolong discussions over a new government and leave Hamas to court smaller parties and independents. What happens to President Abbas? Abbas is not directly affected because he was elected in 2005, but he said recently that he could resign if he is unable to pursue his agenda for peacemaking with Israel. Will Hamas keep fighting? Rhetoric about resisting Israel is certain to continue, but Hamas has largely followed a truce for nearly a year and has not carried out a suicide bombing since August 2004. It would be difficult for it to allow its armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, to carry out such attacks openly while also playing a government role and needing to assure donor funding. But Hamas will now be able to use its position to reject any suggestion that it should disarm its militants, a process that is meant to start under a US-backed peace "roadmap." What will Hamas' priorities be? The priorities for a Hamas-dominated government are likely to be internal issues such as tackling insecurity, poverty and health care that directly affect the lives of Palestinians. It would be expected to promote conservative Islamic values without necessarily imposing them by force. What happens to peacemaking? There is no foreseeable prospect for reviving talks on Palestinian statehood that collapsed in 2000. Hamas has said it will not recognize Israel, though it has suggested that talks would not "be taboo" if the Israelis gave up all of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem which the Jewish state will not. It has floated the idea of contacts through a third party. January 26 大约在加拿大的冬季当自由党主政枫叶之国整整十年之后的2003年，加拿大的保守力量自觉甚至自救味道地整合为新的保守党CPC，并在片刻犹豫之后选择了当时仅有43岁的改革党人StephenHarper出任领袖。在紧跟着的大选中，虽然更像是刚刚接替Chretien的自由党资深政治家PaulMartin测验民意的练兵场，但CPC仍然在传统上不可能加分的Ontario等西南发达地区得到了大量选票。自由党却仅仅保住了议会308席位中133席而勉强建立苟且偷安的少数政府，PaulMartin的处子秀也悄然在民众对于自由党“保守的社会与中立的经济”定位的厌倦之中落幕。此后，久经考验的Martin叔叔就一直麻烦缠身，他虽然可以在党内的初选中战胜后来成为自己副手的SheilaCopps，但最终在另一位SheilaFraser的笔下败下阵来，而这位女记者所报道的关于魁北克竞选财政的丑闻只是一切恶梦的开始。算起来Paul也算跟Sheila有缘，一生的三个关键点都遇上了。当然，头一个是1965年27岁的他迎娶的新娘，叫做SheilaAnnCowan。曾经被财富论坛说成可以和ColinPowell、KofiAnnan组成“梦之队三人组合”的前财长面对着魁北克的独立、纽芬兰岛的自治、各种各样的丑闻等等等等开始显示出明显的难以招架。他对外一贯坚持的“新自由主义”外交被邻居BUSH视为眼中钉，而信奉天主教的Martin对于同性恋婚姻的排斥也成为了他与自己领导政党分歧的源头。直到18个月后的第2次选举被魁北克联盟BLOC和新民主党NDP提上了加拿大政治的议事日程。 也许是因为民主政治的特质，你干得再好，一干就是十几年也会没有了任何的魅力。很多厌恶美国的加拿大人选择了美国味道很浓的Harper其实只是认为：为什么不给他一次试试的机会呢，不行的话可以再选举的。而不幸的是，这样想法的人太多以至于最终把2006年后的未来送给了保守党。已经46岁的Harper虽然和Martin是同乡，都出生在Ontario，但绝大部分的生命轨迹都留给了西部的农业省Alberta。这也正印证了保守党作为主要反对力量，本身却还没有做到全国化的最大劣势。从现在得到的官方选举结果来看，308席中的四大块是CPC的124、自由党的103、BOLC的51和NDP29。很显然没有合纵连横经验的保守党将最大可能同魁北克地方的BLOC组成联合政府，副总理的位子应该是不错的交换。这样一个没有全国影响力的执政党加上一个有明显分立倾向地方党的联合政府，对于这个本来就不太团结的大国而言究竟会意味着什么，但愿不会太坏。 不过这次寒冬的大选中，Harper真正走到了舞台的中心。以前一切所有死板的印象在他的幽默与模仿力面前变得苍白无力。这位2个孩子的父亲竟然都模仿到了加州的Arnold的很多做派，让希望改变的加拿大人真的眼前一亮。但就在23日大选基本结束，也就是初步确认CPC获胜的当天，在Harper热爱的第二故乡Alberta省的养牛场里发现了全加至今第5例疯牛病，这时正是加国多次与美国、日本发生争执后美日刚刚解除禁运的不久。所有媒体都认为一直支持伊拉克战争、力挺BUSH的Harper将给加美关系带来更多的温情，可面对病死的肉食牛，Harper的脸上又一次没有了笑容。 对了，算上这次，再上算去年的德国。今年在圣彼得堡要开的G8会里，西方七国只有Blair有点左派的味道了。可怜Putin啊，好不容易请一次客，还弄的都是志不同道不合的右派。有好戏看啦～：） January 23 时代周刊：谁是BUSH的新欢？From the Magazine | World
Who Are You Calling A Bush Lover?A conservative is poised to lead liberal Canada. How did he get this far?By STEVEN FRANK/TORONTOPosted Sunday, Jan. 15, 2006 There have been times in habitually left-leaning Canada when the suggestion that a politician took money from U.S. conservatives would have been enough to seal victory for the other guy. So when strategists for the ruling Liberal Party unveiled 12 schlock-horror ads last week, three of which linked Harper to "right-wingers in the U.S." (read: the Bush Administration), they may have thought they had pulled off a political masterstroke. Never mind that the charges are at best misleading. This is election time in Canada, and truth gets as much respect as a mouse cornered by a hungry cat. Even Prime Minister Paul Martin descended into the muck last week, all but branding his opponent an alien from outer space, or at least Texas. "The farthest of the U.S. far right--that's what [he] means when he says it's time for a change in Canada," Martin told supporters in Toronto. "Well, let me tell you something ... That's not the kind of change that Canadians want. America is our neighbor. It is not our nation." But Canada may not be quite what it used to be. Polls indicate that despite the anti-U.S. attacks, Conservatives are likely to be the big winners in the Jan. 23 federal vote. That would make Harper, 46, Canada's first Conservative Prime Minister since 1993. The Liberals have only themselves to blame for losing the upper hand. For the past two years, they have been dogged by revelations that a federal program was manipulated to create a Liberal-friendly slush fund and kickback scheme in the province of Quebec. A Nov. 1 report by a national commission exonerated Prime Minister Martin, but the scandal has left a lingering stench. "I'm tired of being screwed by the Liberals," says Gerry Gagné, 47, a lifelong Liberal supporter from Low, Que., in a now common refrain. During the last federal election, in June 2004, the Liberals successfully painted the Toronto-born Harper as a far-right ideologue out to shred Canada's social fabric. Harper never effectively fought back. But he has since repositioned himself. While he originally supported the Iraq war and promotes such traditional Tory issues as tax cuts and a tougher stance on crime, he is also pushing such centrist initiatives as tax credits for people who buy mass-transit passes. Harper has vowed to revisit the issue of same-sex marriage, which is now legal in Canada, by putting it to a vote in Parliament, but he has promised not to touch abortion rights. And he has worked hard to recast his cold and humorless image, though he admitted during a televised debate last week that "my strengths are not spin or passion." Harper's shrewdest move has been to distance himself from the U.S. After a Dec. 2 Op-Ed piece in the Washington Times said Harper's election would "put a smile on President George W. Bush's face," Harper wrote a letter to the editor pointing out the differences between his policies and those of the Bush Administration. And when the Liberals released the TV spots playing up Harper's supposed love affair with U.S. conservatives, the Tories returned fire, issuing a press release that chided their opponents for resorting to "American-style" campaign tactics. Canada's conservatives have learned how to dance to their own drumbeat. With reporting by Huguette Young/Low January 22 “美国噩梦”今日上演现在大约是玻利维亚当地时间上午9点左右，今天这个经历300年西班牙殖民的拉丁美洲最大内陆国将正式迎来第一位土著印第安总统，同时对于拉美大陆也终于将久违的粉红色联成了一片。
现年46岁的EvoMorales出身于玻利维亚西部Oruro一个极度贫寒的Aymara印第安矿工家庭。小的时候放过骆驼、家庭窘困让他没有办法念完高中。甚至在这个家庭的6个兄弟姐妹中只有2个最终长大成人，Morales就是幸运地挺过安第斯寒冷严酷气候的其中之一。而印第安人血统、贫寒家庭出身等等却最终决定了Morales的政治立场，也是他在总统选举中赢得人气所在。甚至在竞选过程中，Morales走到哪里都一直处于狂热的支持者团团包围之中。
20世纪80年代，玻利维亚遭遇了有史以来最大的旱灾，Morales一家移居到西部的Chapare，开始转行从事这个国家驰名世界的古柯叶种植。这时的Morales坚强地捡回了中学的课本，完成了最基本的知识结构。对于自己的受教育程度，这位年轻的总统现在仍然直言不讳，他愿意把包括自己17岁进入军队服役的所有人生经历说成是一次“University of Life”。10年之后，雄心勃勃的Morales成为了当地古柯种植业利益的代言人，38岁那年他得到当地70%的支持选入地区议会。而Morales的名字从这时起开始被LaPaz方面不断注意。
2002年Morales走出议会领导当时的“争取社会主义运动”MAS参加了总统选举，当时所有人都不看好这个根本没有自己政见而只会说反对什么的政治“帮派”。而美国驻玻利维亚大使ManuelRocha却好事地发表声明置疑MAS的选举资格。这么一来，明明是把MAS推向了反美的旗手位置，从而帮助Morales成为最重要的反对派。
这位南美的农民一直把自己和MAS说成是一场“美国噩梦”，他们明确要求自己的国家能足够自主，而非成为华盛顿共识或者“新自由主义”经济模式的试验品和牺牲品。所以，在Morales的竞选纲领中就直接提到了古柯种植业和天然气的问题。天然气像石油一样，是美国现在急于在全球控制的重要战略资源，而作为玻利维亚人主要茶饮品的古柯叶则是被美国视为可卡因主要原料的危险资源而除之后快。出于这样重要，美国历来要求玻利维亚采取“替代经济”政策，不允许其有自己的系统产业与完全产品。这也是Morales这样的土著人最最不能容忍的事情。
2004年，由于长期统治玻利维亚的欧洲裔精英与邻国智利的素有恩怨，国家放弃了采用最近的石油输入管道而选择了遥遥无期的道路向北美输出。这样进一步激怒了MAS的支持者，一时间大城市ElAlto和LaPaz的街道上充满了抗议的人群，在Morales的领导下，最终导致了国家的瘫痪和让步。这也被视为是Morales对于2005年总统大选觊觎的冰山一角。
终于，在2005年12月18日的大选中Morales和他的MAS得到了53.9%的支持而顺利当选。但值得一提的是，玻利维亚全国850万人口中现有的土著印第安人比例恰恰是很相似的54%，他们都处于社会最底层。而如果这位西班牙殖民统治结束500年后才民选出来的土著总统所得到的选票只是所有印第安底层人们的一个映射的话，他执政的政治基础和未来就变得非常单一和不确定。古柯叶为代表的种植业转变为种植、加工、商贸一条龙的系统经济、天然气国有化、彻底摆脱“新自由主义”经济模式的制约，这些都不仅仅是底层的狂热就可以做到了，而是需要巨大的经济基础和民族资本作为原动力。但所有的一切对于年轻的Morales而言，都还是未知的问题。昨天，在玻利维亚著名的Tinwanaku古印第安遗址，土著印第安人为自己的总统举行了古老的祭天仪式，神情严肃的Morales外罩红色披风，头戴四角帽，手握权杖。在各个部族领袖的簇拥下穿过一条被古柯叶清扫干净的神道，脱下鞋赤脚登上了拥有上千年历史的金字塔。印第安祭司向他表示祝福，并且赐予他一根用金银装饰象征印第安至高权力的权杖。在一个月之前，Morale同样来到这里祈祷“大地之母”保佑他的选举，现在他再次回来希望这个原始崇拜的神灵祝福他和他未来的国家。而在2003年Morales的一次精彩演讲仍然让很多人记忆犹新，那次的题目叫“I Believe Only In The Power Of The People”。
Morales作为很Charisma的领导人，坚持在任何场合穿着红白蓝相间的alpaca毛衣。或者是得到支持，或者是树立形象，他在去年最后一个月的胜利之旅中拜访了Castro、Chavez、Chirac、Zapatero和胡锦涛。而很多西方领导人包括BUSH也终于都向他的玻利维亚表示了模棱两可的祝贺。
拉美所发生的一切让BUSH始料不及。像30年以前的集体向右转一样，现在粉红色的拉美开始勇敢地努力抛弃着“新自由主义”的道路，左翼政党成为这一过程的注定领导者。资源的国有化、政府行为的增强、有限理性地利用外资等等成为经济回归与复兴的必要选择。而这一切的脚步都仍然在美国的制约之下，至少在很长一段时间里没有好办法改变。对于拉美国家而言，方向已经明确，下面的问题是选择什么样的道路，什么样的未来。 January 21 基督教科学箴言报：没有“中国制造”的一年From TheChristianScienceMonitor A year without 'Made in China' By Sara Bongiorni Dec 20th, 2005 BATON ROUGE, LA. – Last year, two days after Christmas, we kicked China out of the house. Not the country obviously, but bits of plastic, metal, and wood stamped with the words "Made in China." We kept what we already had, but stopped bringing any more in. The banishment was no fault of China's. It had coated our lives with a cheerful veneer of toys, gadgets, and $10 children's shoes. Sometimes I worried about jobs sent overseas or nasty reports about human rights abuses, but price trumped virtue at our house. We couldn't resist what China was selling. But on that dark Monday last year, a creeping unease washed over me as I sat on the sofa and surveyed the gloomy wreckage of the holiday. It wasn't until then that I noticed an irrefutable fact: China was taking over the place. It stared back at me from the empty screen of the television. I spied it in the pile of tennis shoes by the door. It glowed in the lights on the Christmas tree and watched me in the eyes of a doll splayed on the floor. I slipped off the couch and did a quick inventory, sorting gifts into two stacks: China and non-China. The count came to China, 25, the world, 14. Christmas, I realized, had become a holiday made by the Chinese. Suddenly I'd had enough. I wanted China out. Through tricks and persuasion I got my husband on board, and on Jan. 1 we launched a yearlong household embargo on Chinese imports. The idea wasn't to punish China, which would never feel the pinprick of our protest. And we didn't fool ourselves into thinking we'd bring back a single job to unplugged company towns in Ohio and Georgia. We pushed China out of our lives because we wanted to measure how far it had pushed in. We wanted to know what it would take in time, money, and aggravation to kick our China habit. We hit the first rut in the road when I discovered our son's toes pressing against the ends of his tennis shoes. I wore myself out hunting for new ones. After two weeks I broke down and spent $60 on sneakers from Italy. I felt sick over the money; it seemed decadent for a pair of children's shoes. I got used to the feeling. Weeks later I shelled out $60 for Texas-made shoes for our toddler daughter. We got hung up on lots of little things. I drove to half a dozen grocery stores in search of candles for my husband's birthday cake, eventually settling on a box of dusty leftovers I found in the kitchen. The junk drawer has been stuck shut since January. My husband found the part to fix it at Home Depot but left it on the shelf when he spotted the telltale "Made in China." Mini crises erupted when our blender and television broke down. The television sputtered back to life without intervention, but it was a long, hot summer without smoothies. We killed four mice with old-fashioned snapping traps because the catch-and-release ones we prefer are made in China. Last summer at the beach my husband wore a pair of mismatched flip-flops my mother found in her garage. He'd run out of options at the drug store. Navigating the toy aisle has been a wilting affair. In the spring, our 4-year-old son launched a countercampaign in support of "China things." He's been a good sport, but he's weary of Danish-made Legos, the only sure bet for birthday gifts for his friends. One morning in October he fell apart during a trip to Target when he developed a sudden lust for an electric purple pumpkin. "It's too long without China," he wailed. He kept at me all day. The next morning I drove him back so he could use his birthday money to buy the pumpkin for himself. I kept my fingers off the bills as he passed them to the checker. My husband bemoans the Christmas gifts he can't buy because they were made in China. He plans to sew sleeping bags for the children himself. He can build wooden boats and guitars, but I fear he will meet his match with thread and needle. "How hard can it be?" he scoffed. The funny thing about China's ascent is that we, as a nation, could shut the whole thing down in a week. Jump-start a "Just Say No to Chinese Products Week," and the empire will collapse amid the chaos of overloaded cargo ships in Long Beach harbor. I doubt we could pull it off. Americans may be famously patriotic, but look closely, and you'll see who makes the flag magnets on their car bumpers. These days China delivers every major holiday, Fourth of July included. I don't know what we will do after Dec. 31 when our family's embargo comes to its official end. China-free living has been a hassle. I have discovered for myself that China doesn't control every aspect of our daily lives, but if you take a close look at the underside of boxes in the toy department, I promise it will give you pause. Our son knows where he stands on the matter. In the bathtub one evening he told me how happy he was that "the China season" was coming soon. "When we can buy China things again, let's never stop," he said. After a year without China I can tell you this: You can still live without it, but it's getting trickier and costlier by the day. And a decade from now I may not be brave enough to try it again. • Sara Bongiorni is a freelance writer and is working on a book about her family's yearlong adventure in the global economy. —————————————————————————————————————— 译文： 去年，圣诞节过后两天，我们把“中国”从家里踢了出去。当然，我们并非把这个国家踢出去，而是不再使用一些标明“中国制造”的塑料、金属和木制产品。我们保留已经拥有的“中国制造”的产品，而不再购进任何新产品。 这种驱逐行动不是中国的错。我们生活中充斥着来自中国的各种东西————玩具、小玩意和10美元一双的童鞋。有时，我也担心流失到海外的就业机会或者有关侵犯人权的报道，但价格最终总是战胜我们的价值观。我们根本无法拒绝中国出售的产品。 但是，去年在那个黑色的星期一，当我坐在沙发上，环顾节日过后的满地狼藉时，一种不安慢慢涌上心头。直到那一刻，我才注意到一个不容辩驳的事实———中国正在占领这个地方。 桌子上的电视机、门边的一堆网球鞋、圣诞树上的彩灯、地板上的洋娃娃，屋里随处可见中国制造的产品。我起身离开沙发，迅速进行了一次盘点，把所有的礼物分成了两大类———中国制造的和非中国制造的。最后的统计结果是：中国产品25件，非中国产品14件。我意识到圣诞节已经成了中国人制造的节日。突然，我觉得够了。我想把“中国”关在门外。 经过略施小计和一番苦口婆心的劝说，我把丈夫也争取过来。于是，1月1日，我家开始了为期一年的抵制中国产品的活动。这个想法并非为了惩罚中国，它根本不会感觉到我们的抗议带来的这点微乎其微的影响。而且，我们也不会欺骗自己，认为我们把一个就业机会还给了俄亥俄州或者佐治亚州的某家公司。我们把中国拒之门外是因为想衡量一下，中国到底在多大程度上渗入了我们的生活。我们想知道放弃使用中国产品到底需要花费多少时间和金钱，以及会带来多少不便。 我们碰到的第一个问题就是儿子的网球鞋已经小得无法再穿了。给他买一双新鞋搞得我疲惫不堪。经过两周的奔波后，我终于受不了了，花60美元给他买了一双从意大利进口的运动鞋。这笔钱花得让我有点心疼，因为这个价钱对于一双童鞋来说似乎有点奢侈。但我很快就习惯了这种感觉。几周后，我又花了60美元给我们蹒跚学步的小女儿买了一双得克萨斯州制造的鞋子。 随后，我们在许多小事上遇到了麻烦。为了给丈夫的生日蛋糕买蜡烛，我开车去了6家杂货店都没有买到，最终不得不用在厨房里找到的一盒落满灰尘的蜡烛将就。我家的一个旧抽屉从1月起就拉不开了。我丈夫在“家得宝”发现了修抽屉用的工具，但当他发现这个工具也贴着“中国制造”的标签后，就又把它放回了货架上。 家里的搅拌器和电视机坏了，这也带来了小小的危机。我们还不得不用起了旧式的捕鼠器，因为新式的也是中国制造的。 我不知道12月31日我家的抵制行动正式结束的时候，我们会怎么做。没有中国产品的生活一团糟。我发现，中国并没有控制我们日常生活中的每个地方，但如果你看看百货公司玩具部的盒子下面，我保证你还是会大吃一惊的。 经过一年没有中国的日子后，我可以告诉你：没有中国你也可以活下去，但是生活会越来越麻烦，而且代价会越来越大。以后10年我可能都没有勇气再尝试这种日子。 January 19 卫报：石榴裙转到法国？From The Guardian via ChinaDaily
France's First Female Head of State?
PARIS: She is elegant, self-assured, strong on what interests her families, schools, the environment, while she is sensibly vague on the rest foreign affairs, the economy. And according to three polls this month, she could be France's first female president. "The china in a bull-shop," as one commentator called her this week, is Segolene Royal, a former minister who now heads the regional government of Poitou-Charentes and, in a field of ageing and familiar male faces, is suddenly looking like the obvious socialist challenger to conservative Nicolas Sarkozy in next year's presidential poll. "It's early days yet," cautioned a leading political analyst, Pascal Perrineau. "She's certainly far more than just a media darling; there's real popular approval in these polls. But the test will be to move on from what you might call 'paper popularity'." In any event, Perrineau said, Royal's sudden rise "makes it very clear that the French electorate is deeply fed up with a political class that refuses to field different and younger candidates, or to allow more women into its ranks." The polls look unambiguous. Surveys by Louis Harris, TNS-Sofres and Ifop show that up to 53 per cent of the French think Royal, a 52-year- old mother of four, has "the stature of a president of the Republic." In two polls her ratings pipped those of the thrusting Interior Minister Sarkozy, and in all three she finished far ahead of veteran socialist rivals; untainted by the row over the EU constitution last year, Royal has the backing of 76 per cent of leftist sympathisers. Publicly, Royal, an MP since 1988, has so far said merely she is "ready to take part in the debate" and "available if the French people and the socialists desire." But her new association, Future Desires, is busily channelling and organising the wave of popular support for her candidacy and her campaign, in all but name, is already under way. Royal, who has just been to Chile to support that country's first female president, Michelle Bachelet, served notice of her potential in the 2004 regional elections, when she crushed the chosen candidate of Jean-Pierre Raffarin on the then conservative prime minister's home ground of Poitou-Charentes. Slight, cheerful, invariably immaculate, she ran an admirable and energetic grassroots campaign without the help of any party heavyweights. January 17 雪·宾果士·生日·爱雪一直下，越来越大，像23年前的今天一样。
数着窗外的雪花，切着她要宾果士叔叔送来的蛋糕，温着杯子里的红酒，缠绵在久违的爱意里。
一个人的房间，两个人的未来。
不想再被打扰，就坚持走下吧。
24岁的她，要因我而感到更多幸福。
24岁的我，要能保证留在她的身边。
25岁的她，约好跟我去领一样东西。
25岁的我，让她感觉一切都很值得。
…………
然后就这样值得的一路下去。
肆意、甜蜜、简单…… January 16 女主角的男权舞台最近的全球媒体都津津乐道地细致宣传了美德关系的突然回暖，当两位国家领导人同着黑衣站在闪光灯前面的时候，所有人都闻到保守主义的暧昧气息。而下面BUSH的发言却听起来不是那么保守，虽然在口音上仍然没有脱去南方的土气。WhiteHouse提供的发言记录中不难发现BUSH在描述自己和Merkel的谈话时用去了N个desire，多desirable的谈话呢，可以想见BUSH面对都不愿意通电话的Schroeder时的无奈就是这样彻底释然了。不过他有点得意忘形了，昨天Laura有点酸酸味道地再次访问非洲。这次她除了习惯性关注广大非洲的妇女儿童之外，最大的重头戏是参加美国一手造出的利比里亚新民选总统的就职仪式。而这位新任总统却是一位叫EllenJohnson-Sirleaf的非洲女性。
多年来哈佛肯尼迪政府学院（KSG）其实除了学术水平很棒之外，好像还没有出过什么真正的政治精英。在他们的校友录里甚至还有TalkShow演员的名字充数。但自从新加坡的李显龙子承父业之后，KSG的学子们就越来越多地出头了。最近的两个是读了MPA的香港曾特首Mr.Tie，再有就是这个非洲大陆的第一位女性领导人EllenJohnson-Sirleaf。就但愿她能给饱受14年的利比里亚带来真正的和平和发展了。
与此同时，在世界的另两端，女性也成为政治舞台的绝对主角。北欧的芬兰和南美的智利在15日一天分别举行了总统选举，同样决定着未来至少6年各自国家的走向与命运。而女性都成为这两场角逐的主要竞争者，她们都代表着执政的主流政党，而且种种迹象表明她们都将如同成功掌握自己命运一样开始掌握她们所深爱国家的未来。
芬兰的TarjaHalonen在过去的6年间领导自己的社会民主党SDP保持了国家经济GDP增长1.9%的平均水平，把失业率控制在10%之内，得到了国民的拥护与支持。最新的情况显示，虽然她在第一轮选举中没有得到50%的选票，但作为反对力量由现总理Vanhannen领导的中间党将最终转而支持Halonen共同抵制保守党，这样经过毫无悬念的runoff，芬兰第一位女总统将稳稳开始她的下一个6年。
最最狭长的智利的情况现在看来更加乐观一些，选举结果显示作为执政党的四党联盟获得了53.4%的选票从而击败了“为了智利”的中右联盟。智利人民选择了至少被中文媒体称为“单亲妈妈”的MichelleBachelet而不是亿万富翁的银行家SebastianPinera。MichelleBachelet作为现任总统Lagos的红人，在过去的6年里得到了充分的锻炼和表现，她先后担任了卫生部长和国防部长，这样不凡的经历让所有人相信这样一个54岁的单身母亲可以在繁杂的内政外交事务面前游刃有余。看过MichelleBachelet的档案会发现一切都是那么像上帝安排好的一样。她的父亲是Allende时期的将军，美国支持Pinochet军事政变上台之后，父亲冤死狱中，全家流亡到东德。年龄与Merkel相仿的她也许在东德得到了与那个Kohl灰姑娘同样的坚强与忍耐，1979年她回到祖国后被禁止从事医生的本行，1990年Pinochet被推翻也开始四处流亡后，MichelleBachelet竟然继承父亲遗志，决定到SanDiego和华盛顿学习军事战略学。2000年，左派Lagos上台，这样的全才终于开始崭露头角，最终的今天成为了整个国家的主宰。南美里的所有邻国应该都很高兴看到第一个不是前总统遗孀的女人成为总统。几年来，委内瑞拉、巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和最近的玻利维亚都换上了左翼政治家执政，以至于去年11月的NAFTA峰会让BUSH举步为坚。就在智利官方刚刚宣布选举结果，竞选双方还没有来得及表态的时候，委内瑞拉的Chavez就迫不及待地提前开口表示热烈欢迎，并称MichelleBachelet一直是自己很好的朋友。或许等到今天刚刚视察完运抵哈瓦那的中国造火车之后，Castro再发言支持一下，整个南美应该一起成为BUSH最后3年的粉红色梦魇了。
今天在电话里听到她说到，2020年以后真的是女性的时代了。我有同样的兴奋，女性可以成为男权世界的主角本身就是时代的进步与释怀。从现在的情形看，女性的政治角色确实变得不断成熟了，甚至她们在选择自己的政治样式时也已经超越了女性主义应有的价值判断。本来女性主义不论在内政还是外交上都本能地明显呈现出左倾的特点，她们的母性会更加关注人权、关注弱势、关注经济发展中的社会文化教育等诸问题，同时她们还会很天真的相信在国际事务中理解与共存将成为一切问题的最终答案。但事实上，现在的女性政治参与者却厌恶了所有这些原本的特征，她们大胆地投入了本来男权优势的所有领域。比如我们今天多次提及的Merkel，现在俨然成为欧洲保守主义的新一代旗手，像Thatcher或者Meir一样，她成为了“内阁中唯一的男人”，彻底颠覆了政治中的女性定位。这些都应该都属于现代政治宿命的一部分。
但是我们同样有些事情需要记得。拿三位上面提及的女性政治参与者作case：现年62岁的Halonen担任总统之后还是未婚，但与一个政府官员长期同居，也是在最近2年内迫于压力完结了浪漫的若即若离。学物理的Merkel与同学结婚后不和，离婚时为争夺洗衣机甚至翻脸，她保留前夫姓氏以显示自己的保守，却又与自己导师开始同居，也是在当选CDU主席后很久才正式完婚。刚刚当选的MichelleBachelet更是特别，流亡东德的6年给她留下一个非婚生的儿子，回到祖国后她又为另一个男人养育了一对儿女，直到这个南美陈世美不堪压力弃她而去…………这样的种种无论在基督教的欧洲还是在森严天主教的南美都是很不主流的。而正是这些用自己的生命体验着非主流的女性，却一步一步抓住了政治的主流。而同样对于男人，任何这样的情况都会发酵成断送全部政治生命的诱因。有一点不同可以明显的看出，男权世界对于女性政治参与者的要求在不断降低着。而这样的态度应该不是出于最简单的宽容与忍让，而只会是因为在竞选政治中作秀的需要而已。想想，如果一个女人，像一切成为政治家的男人一样无懈可击的优秀，那又有什么意思呢；不是个状况多多的女人，又有什么与男权不同的新异呢。这样想开去，女性政治参与者的悲哀其实是不可逆转的。女性在男权面前还是更多体现着复制了的工具理性。
在2005年里，一部电视剧小小牵动了美国观众的眼球：Commander in Chief。只能在StuartLittle2里混上出演妈妈这样小角色的GeenaDavis抓住了这个机会，为观众第一次演绎了一位女总统的美利坚合众国。但愿像Laura出走之前抛出了言论那样，Condi可以有勇气和运气来对决Hillary。但事实上操纵一切胜负的手却还是那么粗壮有力，男权的背影仍然在不断重新定义着女性政治。
谁是女主角，一切还都在继续………… January 14 忠孝不能两全的发言人在昨天的ChinaDaily上看到了一则让人有点酸酸的花边新闻：“Angelina Jolie pregnant with Brad Pitt's child”，这个30岁的sexypot终于可以在今夏为3次登上PEOPLE的42岁男人带来平生第一次作父亲的感觉了。后来在我国最严肃最权威的新闻社网站上竟然找到了经过科学预期计算后小Pitt的合成照片，可见我国这家权威传媒现在是多么有品味和勇气来与民同乐。其实我真的为Angelina叫屈，地球人都知道Pitt是因为Aniston是一个DINK迷才离了另找的。但愿仅仅完成女人工具理性的这对couple可以真正成为“Mr. & Mrs.Smith”。
另外在昨天可以读到的另一则与母亲有关的消息是从白宫传出来的。倒不是因为德国政坛新贵女总理Merkel到访白宫让华府多了很多女人味，而是因为一直被西媒评价老实巴交的白宫发言人ScottMcClellan。像往常一样的早上7点钟，还没睡醒的McClellan走进椭圆办公室向总统请示每日要义，但不同的是，他问BUSH，如果记者们问到我妈妈的事情我该怎么说…………
2006年是美国的中期选举年，立法的国会大换血之外，像加州得州这样对美国政治走向有风向标作用的地方也将迎来州长换届。而几乎与加州的Arnold架车出事嘴上封了十几针的同时，传统共和党的得州在党内初选就遇到了更多的意外。现任州长Perry是BUSH的死忠亲信，BUSH州长的4年里的副手和搭档，他目睹了BUSH怎么政治暗杀了AnnRichards，怎么实现了得州的共和党保守化，怎么以历史最单薄的履历走进白宫，而这一切都帮他现在可以为BUSH做好一件事情，那就是保住得州这块新保守主义的保留地。面对下一个任期，BUSH对于Perry的支持是不言而喻的。但今年1月2日，现任得州的审计长共和党人CaroleKeetonStrayhorn宣布将以独立身份参加州长选举。这位现年66岁的老太太曾经作过得州首府Austin的市长，更重要的是她就是现任BUSH喉舌McClellan的亲娘。根据最近的统计显示，得州会有54%的选民倾向于共和党，而民主党也能获得35%。在民主党内部还在从前众议员和商场老板之间举棋不定的时候，趋势明显表现出最终的选择要在Perry和老妈之间完成。虽然在独立候选人中还有一位叫Friedman的小说家，但毫无政治经验不能与Strayhorn相提并论。甚至由于Strayhorn与民主共和两党的特殊暧昧，加之美国政治中间力量的不断膨胀，最终的结果也是真的可以再次造就现代美利坚的下一个政治世家。
McClellan从BUSH那里得到的结果当时是现任总统先生支持现任州长先生。在下面的Freeze里，他直言不讳地把这个信号传达给了全球媒体。而媒体也对这位敬业的喉舌特别眷顾，一个机会指向他自己的想法。McClellan的回应毫不犹豫，他会支持自己的母亲。
事情还在继续，忠孝真的不能两全。但这样的直率也许不仅可以为McClellan带来媒体一句“有种的男人”的评价。得州如果易手，2008的很多事情就将更加难说。也许当选总统Hillary会希望留任这位率真的发言人的。 January 10 KIM同学窜班KIM同学的火车现在到哪里了呢，从今天早上开始西媒就不断的猜啊猜的。AP刚说他来了，韩国就很自做聪明地说是开进东北，然后法新社更加pro地指出什么时候已经路过了丹东。所有西媒提及KIM的行踪之后都还会刻意说起前些天美国再次对朝鲜的施压，敦促KIM同学尽快回到六方会谈的事情，并重申美国对朝鲜的金融制裁与六方会谈没有任何关系。算起KIM上一次访问中国是在2004年4月，那时还安排来天津考察，体验了中国特色社会主义的良好态势。而特别搞笑的是西媒刚刚一口咬定由于在国际社会中处于孤立状态，KIM很少出访，而中国几乎是他唯一可以出访的国家。之后Reuters就曝了来自最最内部高层的说法，KIM同学只是借路而已，他的终点是遥远的莫斯科，像他父亲一样的摆谱在火车上坐去几天时间。不过是不是Reuters的同志们不了解东北的铁路线路呢，要真的VIA一下是不是KIM同学想吃中国什么小吃啊，也许吧。
KIM同学出来一次不易，好运哦～ 沙龙身后事From the TIME Magazine | World
Troubled SoilWith Sharon off the stage, Israel prepares for life after its iconic leader. Why his successor will find it harder to make peace with the Palestinians
Posted Sunday, Jan. 08, 2006 It was his final call. Soon after he hung up, Sharon complained of an excruciating headache. Aides called secret-service paramedics, permanently on duty at the farm and contacted Sharon's personal physician, Dr. Shlomo Segev. According to one of the Prime Minister's aides, the medical personnel discussed whether to fly him to Jerusalem by helicopter but decided it would be too rough a ride, instead opting to transport him by ambulance to Hadassah hospital. He was still conscious when his convey arrived in Jerusalem 48 min. later, but his condition soon deteriorated. An MRI scan revealed a serious brain hemorrhage. Sharon underwent a two-stage operation that lasted more than eight hours. After another surgery on Friday morning, Sharon was in a medically induced coma and attached to a respirator. "Sharon won't come back to be a decision-making person," Moty Ravid, professor of medicine at Tel Aviv University, said on Friday. "His chances of functioning at these levels are close to zero." Since his election as Prime Minister four years ago, Sharon has towered over Israeli politics, shaping it to his will. But while he fought for his life last week, many Israelis had already resigned themselves to the loss of their legendary leader. Unsurprisingly, Sharon displayed a stubborn fortitude, hanging on for days after suffering the initial hemorrhage, even showing signs of improvement late last week. But the prognoses from medical experts indicated that he would never return to the tan leather chair at the center of the Cabinet table. And so the country began the wrenching process of moving on. Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert inherited Sharon's duties and his suffocating security retinue: a convoy of armored cars reserved for the use of the incapacitated Prime Minister has already been transferred to the new one. The rapid handover of power, though, did little to ease the shock and uncertainty that accompanied Sharon's exit from public life. As Israelis monitored the Prime Minister's condition around the clock, they knew they were witnessing the end of an era—and, perhaps, the vanishing of the country's best hope for a durable settlement of the Palestinian dispute. At 77, Sharon was among the few surviving leaders with links to Israel's founding fathers. Sharon's credentials as an uncompromising hawk meant the public trusted him to make painful concessions for peace, even if "peace" for him involved imposing territorial boundaries without the negotiated assent of the Palestinians. That process began last August, with Sharon's decision to withdraw Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip and four West Bank settlements. Although there were celebrations in some cities and towns of the West Bank at the news of the Israeli leader's faltering condition, Palestinian officials acknowledged that a less formidable Israeli leader may not have the courage and popularity to allow them a Palestinian state. The political instability confronting both Israelis and Palestinians jeopardizes Washington's hopes of salvaging some kind of Arab-Israeli peace deal by the end of President George W. Bush's second term. Having hitched their strategy to the success of Sharon's policy of separation from the Palestinians, Administration officials scrambled to put a positive spin on the somber events in Jerusalem. "The desire for peace, the desire for a stable relationship between Israel and the Palestinians, is one that runs wide and deep in the Israeli society," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last Thursday. A senior State Department official says the U.S. believes that "progress is still possible" without Sharon. Whether that remains true will depend on how Israelis handle a crisis that so few saw coming. Until last month, the future looked relatively sunny for this corner of the world. The constant fear of Palestinian suicide bombings has largely dissipated from Israeli life, and Israel's economy emerged from a long slump to become one of the fastest growing in the developed world. Prosperity and the success of the Gaza pullout boosted Sharon's political confidence. When the angry right of Likud hamstrung his government after the Gaza evacuation, he asked Israeli President Moshe Katsav to dissolve the parliament and call for early elections to be held this March. Then he took an even bolder gamble: he bolted the Likud Party and built a new one, Kadima, (forward in Hebrew) on center ground. Sharon figured the mainstream had lost faith in both the give-no-quarter right and the peacenik ideology of the left. Labor voters seeking tough security and Likud voters ready for pragmatic solutions flocked to Kadima. So did high-profile luminaries from both parties, including a cluster of ranking Likud leaders and Labor's Nobel Peace Prize winner Shimon Peres. Polls taken early this month showed Kadima would trounce its rivals, giving Sharon a rarity in Israeli politics: a strong and stable mandate to go on doing what he was doing. Never mind that Israeli voters weren't quite sure precisely what that would be: Sharon's policy of strength alone seemed to promise relief from the impasse of the occupation. If Israelis had doubts about the longevity of their aging, overweight leader, most just shrugged them off. But Sharon's health became an issue in December. His doctors said he had suffered a minor stroke, but within days he was back on the job. As medical experts second-guessed Sharon's doctors after his hospitalization last week—Did doctors err in prescribing blood thinners after the December stroke? Should he have spent Wednesday night in Jerusalem rather than at the ranch?—the world grappled with the prospect of life after Sharon. His departure from the political stage has sucked the air out of the peace process for the immediate future. No one, left or right, expects a quick follow-up to the Gaza disengagement or an early return to the negotiating table. Sharon's 60 years of fighting on Israel's front lines gave him inimitable clout to stand up to the minority religious-nationalist movement that has long maintained a stranglehold on national policy. "I cannot see anyone today who can build a coalition to remove settlements as Sharon could do," says Yisrael Harel, former chairman of the Yesha settlers' council. Who will fill Sharon's shoes? His loyal No. 2, Olmert, has taken over the reins of government and assumed the mantle of leader of Sharon's fledgling party. Olmert has two months before the March 28 elections to prove he deserves the job permanently. Polls taken right after Sharon's hospitalization were encouraging, giving Kadima the same strong showing that the party had polled under Sharon. But analysts warned that there was a huge sympathy factor at play and that once emotions abated, Kadima could start to slide. The party is so new it doesn't even have procedures to select its candidates. Without Sharon, the disparate egos brought together largely by his winning aura could clash. The trick will be to prove in short order that Kadima is more than a one-man show. For now, the party seems to be rallying behind Olmert. The wealthy, elegantly dressed 60-year-old attorney with a taste for Havana cigars long ago lost touch with his old, blue-collar Likud constituency. Like Sharon, he has moved far from his hard-right roots to a shrewd pragmatism, becoming an outspoken advocate of separation from the Palestinians. But he lacks his mentor's charisma, military record and popularity with the public. Kadima's first priority is to keep its Likud and Labor recruits from drifting back to home base. Labor managers are eager to grasp what they see as a fresh opportunity to boost their flagging leader, trade unionist Amir Peretz, whose lack of experience in diplomacy and security issues pushed middle-of-the-roaders toward Sharon. The man who hopes to profit most from Sharon's tragedy, however, is his archrival, Benjamin Netanyahu, the onetime Prime Minister whose tenure was marked by relentless opposition to any territorial trade-aways. Left running a rump party populated by the far right that polls a humiliating third, Netanyahu hopes to woo back disenchanted centrists who may fear doing deals with the Arabs without Sharon's strong arm. "He definitely wants to adhere to a more centrist position," says Likud veteran Zalman Shoval, a former ambassador to Washington under Netanyahu. Many experts believe Kadima's advantages will erode and leave the party in a virtual tie with Labor and Likud. The result: no strong, clear leader or direction for the country. Israel's narrow small parties would again become key players in patching together an unwieldy coalition that would not have the power to launch any major initiatives. "It is doubtful such a coalition could make the kind of fateful decision Sharon made with the Gaza disengagement," says Asher Arian, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. "The power of personality is crucial." Says former U.S. ambassador to Israel Edward Walker: "When you're under pressure, there's a tendency to be less daring and more mainstream. The likely successors in Kadima are far less likely to take risks than Sharon was." That is what troubles Washington, despite Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's declarations that the peace process is bigger than Ariel Sharon. State Department officials say Israelis by and large are weary of war, so they have become more realistic about the need for territorial concessions than would have been conceivable before Sharon. At the same time, the majority of Israelis aren't inclined to believe that the Palestinian leadership can rein in militant groups. If Kadima's leaders are unable to hold the center together, anxious Israelis might shift their votes to the more security-minded Likud. Samuel Roberts, a former State Department intelligence analyst, says if Likud grabs the driver's seat, Netanyahu will be "hard-line and nonaccommodating, playing into the extremists on the Palestinian side." The Bush Administration had hoped a Sharon victory, coupled with a strong showing by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the elections scheduled for Jan. 25, could jump-start negotiations. Both those outcomes now seem out of reach. Abbas is too weak to impose law and order on an increasingly violent population, and his Fatah organization is riven by factions. The radical militants of Hamas, growing in political strength across the territories, look set to give him a drubbing at the polls. Scared by Hamas, Fatah is looking for ways to postpone the vote. Washington wants the election to go forward, and although the Bush Administration still labels Hamas a terrorist organization, Rice said last week that Hamas' right to participate "is an internal matter for the Palestinians." In fact, it may well be that without the strong hand of Sharon to reassure Israelis, it is the Palestinians who will determine the outcome of the country's March vote. The mounting turmoil in the territories today and the prospect of a resurgent Hamas seizing control and launching new terrorist attacks could provoke an Israeli turn to the right. A Hamas candidate in the upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections told TIME that if the next Israeli government responds to the growing chaos in the West Bank and Gaza Strip with force, a "new round of confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis will begin before the end of this year." The mettle that moderates on both sides show in coming days will determine whether Sharon's last overtures toward peace outlive him. With reporting by Elaine Shannon/Washington, ERIC SILVER/JERUSALEM, With reporting by Jamil Hamad, Aaron J. Klein |
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